Lesson 9 ne dikhaya tha ki IV har premium ko phulati aur pichkati hai. Yeh lesson aapko paimana deta hai: aaj ka IV sach mein ooncha hai ya neecha, yeh kaise tay karein, alag alag strikes par IV alag kyun hota hai, aur scheduled events use theek waqt par kaise kuchal dete hain.
Yeh cheez important kyun hai?
"Yeh option sasta hai ya mehnga?" yeh sawaal Lesson 5 se course par latka hua hai. Sirf premium se jawab nahi milta, aur sirf IV se bhi nahi: 14% IV ooncha hai? Kis cheez ke muqable? IV rank wahi gayab sandarbh deta hai, aaj ke IV ko uske apne pichhle saal ke andar rakh kar. Woh ek bekaar number ko faisle mein badal deta hai.
Skew us sawaal ka jawab deta hai jo aap do baar mil chuke ho: OTM 24,800 PE ₹90 ka kyun hai jabki utni hi door ka 25,200 CE ₹55 ka. Aur term structure plus IV crush retail options ki sabse mehngi aadat samjhate hain: event se pehle saamne wala hafta kharidna aur sahi view par paisa jaate dekhna.
Yeh lesson Part 2 poora karta hai. Iske baad aapke paas pura toolkit hai: moneyness, chain, theta, delta, gamma, vega, aur ab woh paimana jo batata hai ki aap kis daur mein trade kar rahe ho. Part 3 wahi hai jahan toolkit positions banana shuru karta hai.
Reality check
IV rank ek compass hai, ghadi nahi. Ooncha IV hafton tak ooncha reh sakta hai; neecha aur neeche ghis sakta hai. Paimana aapke odds jhukata hai aur strategy ka parivaar chunta hai. Woh mod ki guarantee kabhi nahi deta.
Asli market ka example
Paimana. Pichhle saal India VIX 10 ke low se 30 ke high tak ghooma. Aaj woh 14 padh raha hai. IV rank = (14 − 10) ÷ (30 − 10) = 20%. Yaani 14 saal ke low se upar hone ke bawajood aaj ka din shaant hai: abhi ka IV apni hi range mein sirf paanchve hisse tak chadha hai. Kisi doosri subah VIX 22 print karta hai: rank = 60%, sach mein oonche daur ka din, jahan bechi hui premium moti hoti hai.
Skew. Lesson 15 wali chain ka IV column kheencho: 24,800 PE lagbhag 13.5% IV par chal raha hai jabki 25,200 CE lagbhag 11.5% par, dono spot se 200 point door. Doori barabar, darr barabar nahi. Index markets ne 1987 ke baad se crash ke bachav ka daam upar rakha hai, jab unhe dikha ki farsh kitni tezi se gayab ho sakta hai, isliye put IV hamesha upar baithte hain. Wahi structural jhukav skew hai, aur theek isi wajah se Lesson 14 ka ₹90 aur ₹55 wala gap kabhi mispricing tha hi nahi.
Calendar. Aam hafte mein 7-din ka ATM IV 12% padh sakta hai jabki 30-din ka 13.5%: ek halki upar ki dhalaan, kyunki zyada time matlab zyada kuch ho sakta hai. Budget se do din pehle saamne wala hafta ulta ho jaata hai: 7-din ka IV 18% par uchhal jaata hai jabki 30-din ka 14% par baitha rehta hai. Market ne event ko saamne wale hafte ke andar dhoondh liya aur darr ka daam theek wahin laga diya.
Crush, naapa hua. Lesson 9 ki canonical table se, 7-din ka ATM call 30% IV par lagbhag ₹416 ka hai aur 20% par lagbhag ₹277 ka. Event ki raat 30% par darr kharid lo; ghoshna halki nikalti hai; IV subah subah wapas 20% par aa jaata hai. Aapka premium ₹139 per unit gir jaata hai, yaani ₹9,035 per lot, aur NIFTY wahin ka wahin. Ismein kuch fix nahi tha. Toofan nikalte hi insurance ka premium waqt par pichak gaya.
Yaad rakhne wali baatein
IV rank: (abhi ka IV − 52-hafte ka low) ÷ (52-hafte ka high − low). Ek percentage jo batata hai ki aaj apne hi saal ke andar kahan baitha hai. Lagbhag 50% se upar oonchi jagah hai; lagbhag 20% se neeche sasti.
IV percentile: pichhle kitne percent din aaj se neeche IV par band hue. Soch wahi hai, par jab ek hi spike saal ka high bigaad de tab yeh zyada bharose ka hai. Achhe tools dono dikhate hain.
Skew (woh "smirk"): index options mein OTM puts ka IV utni hi door ke OTM calls se ooncha hona. Yeh crash-insurance ka structural bhaav hai, rozana ki koi anomaly nahi.
Smile: kuch markets mein dono door ke wings ATM IV se upar chalte hain, ek U-shape banti hai. Index options mein aam taur par ek tarfa smirk hi dikhta hai.
Term structure: alag alag expiries par IV ka naksha. Aam taur par upar ki dhalaan; saamne wala hissa ulta ho to iska matlab hai ki paas wali expiry ke andar koi scheduled event baitha hai.
IV crush: pata hua event nikalte hi IV ka tez pichak jaana. Mechanical, scheduled, aur bacha ja sakta hai sirf tab jab woh entry se pehle aapke plan mein tha.
Picture mein dekho
Neeche wala curve hamari weekly chain par strike ke saamne IV lagata hai: put wale side ooncha, paise ke paas sabse neecha, aur door wale call wing par halka sa upar. Woh ek tarfa shape hi smirk hai, yaani crash insurance ke liye market ki pakki maang, ek line ki tarah khinchi hui. 24,800 aur 25,200 strikes par hover karke milao.
Put-side strikes carry permanently higher IV than equally distant call strikes: crash insurance is always in demand. This structural tilt, the skew, is why the 24,800 PE costs ₹90 while the 25,200 CE costs ₹55 at the same distance from spot.
Traders isko kaise use karte hain
Strategy chunne se pehle har baar IV rank dekho. Woh daur pehchanne wala auzaar hai. Ooncha rank phule hue premium bechne ke haq mein hai; neecha rank sasta premium kharidne ke. Yeh check chhodna matlab aankh band karke auzaar uthana.
Insurance tab kharido jab uska fashion na ho. Skew aur IV tab sabse saste hote hain jab kisi ko darr nahi hota. Lesson 8 wala protective put theek tab sabse sasta padta hai jab woh sabse kam zaroori lagta hai, aur wahi use rakhne ka sahi waqt hai.
Event kahan hai, yeh term structure se padho. Ulta saamne wala hafta batata hai ki darr kahan baitha hai. Saamne wali expiry tabhi trade karo jab aap jaan bujh kar us event ko trade kar rahe ho.
Crush ka plan entry se pehle banao, baad mein nahi. Event se pehle premium kharid rahe ho, to "kuch nahi hua" wale nateeje par apni position ki crush ke baad wali value likh lo. Woh number manzoor nahi hai, to position shuru hone se pehle hi galat hai.
Alag alag underlyings ke kachche IV kabhi mat milao. NIFTY ka 18% aur kisi ek stock ka 18% alag jaanwar hain; har IV ka matlab sirf uske apne itihaas ke saamne banta hai. Rank ka poora maqsad yahi hai.
Doosre tools ke saath istemal
Yeh wahi lesson hai jahan pura Part 2 ek workflow mein jud jaata hai:
IV rank + chart = strategy ka switch. Ooncha rank plus range mein ghoomta chart income trades ki taraf ishara karta hai: covered calls (Lesson 20), cash-secured puts (Lesson 21), iron condors (Lesson 24). Neecha rank plus simatta hua chart (trend ke baad kasti hui range) debit trades ki taraf: spreads (Lesson 22) aur straddles (Lesson 23). Yeh do input wala filter Part 3 ka sabse bada master switch hai.
Skew + hedging (Lesson 8). Skew asal mein aapke insurance ka bhaav-chart hai. Shaant market mein woh chapta ho jaye to bachav sale par hai; panic mein woh khada ho jaye to aap toofan ke beech teen guna daam par chhata kharid rahe ho.
Term structure + calendars aur straddles (Lesson 25 aur 23). Ulta saamne wala hafta event trades ka kachcha maal hai: calendars mehnga saamne wala hissa bechte hain aur sasta peeche wala rakhte hain, jabki straddle kharidne walon ko phule hue front-week pricing ko peetna padta hai.
Crush + theta + vega (Lesson 16 aur 18). Event se pehle khareeda gaya option roz theta deta hai aur crush ke saamne ek vega bandhak rakhta hai. Entry se pehle teenon dials jodo: expected move ke saamne kiraya-plus-crush. Jod aapke khilaaf hai, to baahar baitho ya side badal lo.
Crush + chain (Lesson 15). Event ke agle subah chain ke IV column par chalo aur strike dar strike crush dekho. Das minute ka yeh kaam, lagatar do teen events par, kisi bhi paragraph se zyada sikha deta hai.
Aam galtiyan
IV ko uske apne itihaas ke bina aankna. "IV 14 hai, kam lagta hai" ka koi matlab nahi. Underlying ke apne saal ke saamne rank nikalo, warna aap extra steps ke saath andaaza hi laga rahe ho.
Yeh maan lena ki ooncha IV kal girega hi. Oonchi jagah pura ghabraya hua mahina bhi tik sakti hai. Rank strategy ka chunav jhukata hai; woh mod ka time nahi batata.
Event wala hafta bina crush plan ke kharidna. Index options mein retail ka sabse zyada dohraya gaya nuksan: event par sahi, pricing par galat, aur 10 baje tak per lot ₹10,000 saaf.
Skew ko direction ka andaaza samajhna. Mote put IV zyadatar pakki insurance ki maang dikhate hain, yeh nahi ki market is hafte girega.
Rank ke liye aalsi lookback lena. Ek shaant mahine par nikala gaya rank har aam din ko "extreme" bata dega. Saal standard paimana hai; pata rakho ki aapka paimana naap kya raha hai.
Quiz
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1. Pichhle saal India VIX 10 se 30 ke beech ghooma aur aaj 14 padh raha hai. IV rank kya hai?
2. 24,800 PE 13.5% IV par chal raha hai jabki utni hi door ka 25,200 CE 11.5% par. Yeh gap kya samjhata hai?
3. Budget se do din pehle 7-din ka ATM IV 18% padh raha hai jabki 30-din ka 14%. Term structure kya keh raha hai?
4. Aap event ki raat 7-din ka ATM call ₹416 par (30% IV) kharidte ho. Event chup chaap nikal jaata hai aur IV 20% par baith jaata hai, NIFTY wahin ka wahin. 65 units ke ek lot ka lagbhag kya hua?
Next · Lesson 20 · Covered calls: rent out your shares. Part 2 ne aapko auzaar diye: moneyness, chain, theta, delta, gamma, vega, aur IV ka paimana. Part 3 unhe paisa banane wali shapes mein jodna shuru karta hai, aur shuruaat sabse shaant wali se: apne hi rakhe hue shares ko kiraye par dena.