Wahi NIFTY 25,000 call, wahi 7 din ki expiry, ek shaant hafte mein ₹166 ka aur agle ghabraye hue hafte mein ₹416 ka ho sakta hai, aur NIFTY ek point bhi nahi hila hota. Yeh lesson har premium ke andar chhupi hui us cheez ko kholta hai: implied volatility.
Yeh cheez important kyun hai?
Is course mein aapne ab tak jis bhi premium ka hisaab lagaya, usmein chup chaap ek cheez maani hui thi: market ko lagta kitna hai ki expiry se pehle NIFTY hilega. Us cheez ka naam hai implied volatility (IV), aur woh roz badalti hai, kabhi kabhi ghante ghante mein. Do bilkul ek jaise options, same strike, same expiry, do alag dinon par dugne bhaav ke ho sakte hain, sirf isliye ki market ki ghabrahat badal gayi, NIFTY mein kuch badla isliye nahi.
IV na samajhna hi wajah hai ki beginners theek us waqt options kharidte hain jab woh sabse mehnge hote hain, yaani bade event se pehle wale din, aur phir "sahi" view par bhi paisa jaane par confuse rehte hain.
Reality check
Premium NIFTY ka bhaav nahi hai. Woh NIFTY ke baare mein anishchitta ka bhaav hai. Zyada expected movement matlab mehnga insurance aur mehnge lottery ticket, buyers aur sellers dono ke liye.
Asli market ka example
Wahi ATM NIFTY 25,000 call lo aur dekho uske premium ka kya hota hai jab sirf ek cheez badalti hai: implied volatility. Is poore example mein NIFTY spot 25,000 par hi khada rehta hai.
12% IV par, yaani ek shaant hafta jismein kuch scheduled nahi hai, 7-din ka ATM call lagbhag ₹166 per unit ka padta hai, ek lot ke ₹10,790. Market ki ghabrahat 30% IV par le jao, maan lo Budget ya RBI policy se do din pehle, aur wahi option, same strike, same expiry, ₹416 ka ho jaata hai, dugne se bhi zyada. NIFTY ek inch nahi hila. Sirf market ka andaaza badla hai ki woh kitna hil sakta hai.
Isi wajah se India ka fear gauge, India VIX, tab bhi matter karta hai jab aap use kabhi trade na karo. VIX par mota moti 10 se 15 matlab market shaant hai, 20+ matlab ghabraya hua, aur 30+ matlab panic. March 2020 ke COVID crash mein woh 80 ke paar chala gaya tha. Us din board ka har option premium usi ek darr se phula hua tha, puts aur calls dono.
Ab jaal yeh hai: IV event se pehle chadhti hai aur event ke turant baad bhark jaati hai, chahe aapka view sahi ho ya galat. Event se pehle 30% IV par call kharido, aur NIFTY theek waqt par thoda upar bhi chala jaye, tab bhi IV ka girna (IV crush, jise Lesson 19 theek se samjhata hai) premium ko chhota kar sakta hai: direction sahi, par woh dikhayi na dene wali cheez galat.
Yaad rakhne wali baatein
Implied volatility (IV): market ka apna andaaza, har premium mein pehle se pakaya hua, ki expiry se pehle underlying kitna hil sakta hai. Yeh percentage hai, ₹ ka number nahi.
Historical volatility vs implied volatility: historical volatility peeche dekhti hai ki asal mein hua kya tha; implied volatility aage dekhti hai ki market abhi kya expect kar raha hai. Dono juda hua hain par aksar aapas mein sehmat nahi hote.
India VIX: exchange ka poore market ki implied volatility ka index. Mota moti 10 se 15 shaant, 20+ ghabraya hua, 30+ panic, aur March 2020 ke COVID crash mein woh 80 paar kar gaya tha.
Premium = anishchitta ka daam: option mehnga isliye nahi hota ki strike ya expiry badli, balki isliye ki market achanak bade moves ki ummeed karne lagta hai.
IV crush: soche hue event ke nikalte hi IV ka tez girna, jo underlying ke "sahi" taraf hilne par bhi premium chhota kar deta hai. Lesson 19 ispar gehra jaata hai.
Picture mein dekho
Neeche wala chart usi ATM 25,000 call ka bhaav badhti hui IV par, do alag expiries ke liye lagata hai. Dono lines tezi se chadti hain, aur har IV level par 30-din wali line 7-din wali se kaafi upar rehti hai: zyada time ka matlab move ke sach mein hone ki zyada gunjaish bhi hai.
7 days to expiry30 days to expiry
Nothing about NIFTY moved between the left and right edge, only the market’s nervousness (IV). The same option can cost double. This is why “cheap” and “expensive” mean nothing without checking IV first.
Traders isko kaise use karte hain
Kuch bhi kharidne se pehle IV check karo. 30% IV par khareeda gaya ₹416 ka call sirf breakeven ke liye bhi sach mein bada move maangta hai. Use kharidna toofan ke beech chhata kharidne jaisa hai, wahi chhata jo pichhle hafte teen guna sasta tha.
Premium bechne walon ko ooncha IV pasand hai. Wahi phula hua bhaav jo option buyers ko chubhta hai, sellers ko lene ke liye milta hai, aur isiliye discipline wali premium-selling strategies (Lesson 20 aur 21) aksar high-IV daur chunti hain.
Sirf ₹ ke number se kisi option ko "sasta" mat kaho. ₹166 aur ₹416 alag alag dinon par ek hi option hain. Matter yeh karta hai ki aaj ka IV, underlying ke asal mein hilne ke tareeke ke muqable, ooncha lag raha hai ya neecha.
Aam galtiyan
Event se pehle options kharid kar pakke uchhaal ki ummeed karna. Event mein jaate hue ooncha IV aam taur par yeh kehta hai ki move pehle se bhaav mein hai, aur IV crush sahi call par bhi fayda mita sakta hai.
Aaj ke premium ko pichhle mahine se bina IV dekhe milana. Badhta hua premium NIFTY ke hilne ke baare mein kuch bhi nahi keh raha ho sakta. Ho sakta hai bas IV phail gaya ho.
Yeh nazarandaz karna ki IV theek tab sabse tez girta hai jab beginners kharidte hain. Zyadatar retail kharidari kisi darawni headline ke turant baad hoti hai, theek us waqt jab IV, aur abhi diya gaya premium, sabse zyada phula hua hai.
IV ko ek fixed number samajhna. IV lagatar badalta hai; ek hi strike ka IV subah aur dopahar mein saaf alag ho sakta hai.
India VIX ko kisi ek option ke apne IV se gadd madd karna. VIX poore market ka gauge hai; kisi ek option ka implied volatility usse alag ho sakta hai, aur hota bhi hai.
Quiz
Get 3 of 4 right to finish the lesson. No account needed. Progress saves in this browser.
1. Upar wali table ke hisaab se, 7-din wala ATM 25,000 call 30% IV par aur 12% IV par lagbhag kitne ka padta hai?
2. Implied volatility asal mein kya darshati hai?
3. Ek trader Budget se do din pehle call kharidta hai, pakka maan kar ki NIFTY chadhega. Budget wale din NIFTY chadhta bhi hai, phir bhi trader ka paisa jaata hai. Sabse sambhav wajah?
4. India VIX abhi 32 par hai. Abhi options kharidne ki soch rahe trader ko isse kya samajhna chahiye?
Next · Lesson 10 · Journaling: the habit that saves you. Ab samajh aa gaya ki NIFTY na hilne par bhi premium kyun hilta hai. Lesson 10 usse kam romanchak par kahin zyada zaroori sawaal poochta hai: aap yeh sab kahin likh bhi rahe ho ya nahi?